Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and caused disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
